RSS Feed
One of the biggest questions on everyone's minds these days is: What's going to happen to the housing market in the second half of the year? Based on recent data on the economy, unemployment, real estate, and more, many economists are revising their forecasts for the remainder of 2020 – and the outlook is extremely encouraging. Here's a look at what some experts have to say about key areas that will power the industry and the economy forward this year.
Mortgage Purchase Originations: Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting, Mortgage Bankers Association
"The recovery in housing is happening faster than expected. We anticipated a drop off in Q3. But, we don't think that's the case anymore. We revised our Q3 numbers higher. Before, we predicted a 2 percent decline in purchase originations in 2020, now we think there will be 2 percent growth this year."
Home Sales: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
"Sales completed in May reflect contract signings in March and April – during the strictest times of the pandemic lock down and hence the cyclical low point…Home sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year."
Inventory: George Ratiu, Senior Economist, realtor.com
"We can project that the next few months will see a slow-yet-steady improvement in new inventory…we projected a stepped improvement for the May through August months, followed by a return to historical trend for the September through December time frame."
Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac
"Going forward, we forecast the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to remain low, falling to a yearly average of 3.4% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021."
New Construction: Doug Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae
"The weaker-than-expected single-family starts number may be a matter of timing, as single-family permits jumped by a stronger 11.9 percent. In addition, the number of authorized single-family units not yet started rose 5.4 percent to the second-highest level since 2008. This suggests that a significant acceleration in new construction will likely occur."
Bottom Line
The experts are optimistic about the second half of the year. If you paused your 2020 real estate plans this spring, connect with a RE/MAX DFW Associates agent today to determine how you can re-engage in the process.
-Keeping Current Matters - July 2020
The minute that people are legally allowed to take a physical tour, the market is going to boom. It's like when the new iPhone comes out. We want and expect lines out the door, just no tents, please. People will be lined up at the doors of those homes they have obsessed over for months. In the meantime, real estate professionals are utilizing virtual tours to keep buyers excited, and it is working, and relationships are getting back to the core — the heart. We are entering what is usually the busiest season of real estate, that usually lasts through the end of the summer. I am confident that the busy season will last through the fall, and possibly through the winter. Momentum is building, so there is no need to fear putting your home on the market. Now is our chance to build and maintain confidence in the real estate market, because as soon as our world begins to shift back into normalcy, the market will be at its height.
Here are 8 Mind Blowing Facts about the Texas Economy
The latest North Texas housing market numbers are not very encouraging, to say the least. Home sales were down in many Dallas-Fort Worth neighborhoods in February, and median home sales prices dropped for the first time since 2008-2009 in both Dallas and Rockwall counties. Dallas County home sales prices fell 2.5 percent in February from a year ago, according to the latest figures from the MetroTex Association of Realtors. Median sales prices slid 4.5 percent in Rockwall County. Collin and Denton counties eked out tiny year-over-year home price gains last month — less that 1 percent ahead of February 2018. The only solid home price gain in the region came in Tarrant County, where houses are still relatively affordable. Lower and moderate-priced house sales are still strong while purchases of expensive properties have lagged.
Dallas-Fort Worth led the nation's metro areas in job growth in 2018, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The DFW region added 16,400 jobs over the course of the year. New York and Houston followed closely behind, with 115,500 and 108,300 new jobs. Cheryl Abbo, regional economist for BLS's Southwest office, said D-FW's showing is "somewhat unusual" on a national scale, especially considering the size difference between it and New York. D-FW has about 7.4 million people, compared with New York's 8.6 million. A handful of large companies moved workers and expanded operations in the region in 2018, including 
The declines in D-FW home sales and slower price appreciation are having a bigger impact on consumers' attitudes than their pocketbooks, analysts said. "I am more concerned about the psychological impact of not-so-rosy housing news than I am about the actual underlying fundamentals of the housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth market," said Daren Blomquist, top economist with Attom Data Solutions. "Certainly the data shows that the market has gotten somewhat overheated and is due for a slowdown, but that slowdown should just be a chance for the market to catch its breath rather than a trigger a panic attack. "Jobs and people are still moving to the Dallas-Fort Worth area in large numbers, which ultimately should keep demand for housing solid," Blomquist said. "But the psychology of the market is more of a wild card and could result in a bigger slowdown or correction."
Not so fast with the gloomy forecasts for Dallas' housing economy. Yes, the local home market appears to be cooling after years of scorching hot sales. And some analysts have suggested there's a Dallas home price bubble getting ready to burst. But a new forecast by Zillow says the market is likely to outperform the rest of the country in 2019 when it comes to home price gains and housing market health.
The D-FW area added more than 100,000 jobs in the year ended in March, according to preliminary figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So far in 2018, D-FW has stayed near the top of the list of U.S. cities with the fastest-growing employment sectors. Job gains in North Texas have topped 100,000 a year for more than four years — an unprecedented economic boom. As long as companies keep bringing so many new jobs to the area, the real estate market will continue to thrive. Add to the jobs, the surge in population growth. Last year, D-FW grew by more than 146,000 people — more than any other major U.S. metro market. More than half of that population gain was from people moving to the area to fill all those newly created jobs.